Who’s number one?

Yessssss, Habs won the draft lottery. All habs fans finally could scream we’re number one about something at the end of a disastrous season. It is not the first time the habs have had the first overall pick. Sadly the Flower’s passing reminded us of the shrewd Sam Pollock getting a generational superstar right after winning a stanley cup. Even then, choosing the Flower over Marcel Dionne was not a certainty and what may have clinched it for Lafleur was the fact his junior team defeated Dionne’s junior team in the Memorial Cup playoffs. In fact, even this was without controversy as Dionne’s junior team, trailing 3-2 in wins, forfeited the series because the Quebec city fans were too rowdy and Dionne’s team refused to play there. 

Sam Pollock was behind another first overall pick when in 1976 he swapped the habs first pick for the Colorado first pick in 1980. He sweetened the deal with the Rockies  by adding a couple of prospects. Rockies finished dead last in 1980 and the habs, after just ending a dynasty, had the first overall pick. The new GM Irving Grundman chose Doug Wickenheiser over Denis Savard. To be fair, Wickenheiser was the consensus choice and fit what the habs needed at the time. The habs had a slew of small offensive centers like Larouche, Mondou, and up and coming Keith Acton. Wickenheiser was a big power center that was missing from the line-up since Peter Mahovlich had been traded. 

Even though Wickenheiser was the last first overall pick the habs have had, they have traded for a few players that were first overall picks. Included in this group were Rob Ramage, Rick Green, Roman Hamrlik, and Ilya Kovalchuk. Two players that had an immediate impact for the habs were Bobby Smith and Pierre Turgeon. Bobby Smith became the big center the habs needed when Wickenheiser did not pan out. He was a big part of the 1986 cup win and cup finalist in 1989. Pierre Turgeon was another talented offensive player that became captain of the habs. He was traded away in the Houle GM era after getting 96 points the previous year.

Many habs fans are ecstatic over winning the lottery, but there is also some warranted worries for getting it right. Recent habs history with high picks has been less than stellar. The third overall pick seemed to be a curse for the previous regime as Galchenyuk never panned out and Kotkaniemi departed even though he had an extremely slow progression with the team. Adding to this, the trade for Drouin who was also a third pick overall, has not produced the expected results.

So who’s number one? Shane Wright tops many lists. He has the pedigree from being given exceptional player status to play as an underage in the OHL to captaining Canada to the under 18 world championship. However, this last year Wright did not show the progression many expected. He was overshadowed by Connor Bedard in the world juniors, and in the prospect game despite scoring early was outplayed for most of the game by various prospects. Similar to Galchenyuk who missed a year in junior due to knee surgery, Wright missed a year as did all juniors in the OHL due to covid. His offensive stats did not greatly improve from his rookie year two years ago. In fact, Nick Suzuki had slightly better stats at the same age. Of course, there are intangibles like linemates etc that may skew things in a player’s favor.

There is diverse opinion as to what Wright can become. We have comparisons that stretch the gamut from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to Steven Stamkos. Many say his playing style will be close to Patrice Bergeron as a two-way center. When they start talking about a two-way center it usually means he is not that good offensively. 

Watching several youtube videos on Wright and a few games he has played some things become apparent. He has a good shot and good passing instincts. He does not play a physical game but this may be due to his age since his body may not be fully mature yet. One thing I noticed he rarely tries to beat a defenceman one on one and lacks creativity there. He is more likely to pass it off the instant he crosses the blue line.  

The other two possible first picks overall are Slafkovsky and Cooley. I like Slaf’s size at 6’4 and his shot. Many are comparing him to Rantanen but watching Slovakia in the worlds  Slaf is nowhere close in foot speed. I also noticed for someone as big as Slaf he did not play a very physical game. His size and shot does remind someone of a Jagr or Nash but his foot speed doesn’t.

Cooley did have a good under 18 World’s for the USA and he did pull off a michigan goal. However, a big minus is his size. Since the habs already have Sean Farrell as an undersized center prospect do they really need another one, even though Cooley could prove to be better. One plus for Cooley’s chances is he is American coming out of the US National Team Development program which Hughes and Gorton have close ties with.

Many pundits in Montreal are all over the map as to who to choose. Some quebecois pundits say they should trade the pick away for a Pierre Luc Dubois or Alex Lafreniere and a later pick. Most hockey pundits outside of Quebec have reached a consensus for Shane Wright. If recent history means anything the habs organization may opt for an out-of-the box pick as they did with the GM and coaching choices. However, I would argue Kotkaniemi was this type of selection and it led to many problems. The safe pick is obviously Wright. At this age, it is really hard to determine if he is of the Wright stuff or will he be another Wrong pick. Anyways it will be exciting on July 7th…